12 Days of Venture Capital

Happy Holidays to all!

2025 opened with the same mix of volatility and possibility that defined last year. Yet despite the headlines, the startup landscape enters this new year with real momentum. AI funding remains historic, the IPO window is cautiously widening, and the pre IPO liquidity market is healthier and more active than it has been in years.

This issue of ESO’s Monthly Start Up marks our three year anniversary, and we could not be more grateful. Thank you to everyone who has been part of this journey with us. You make this work meaningful, and we truly enjoy sharing our perspective with you each month.

In the holiday spirit we are bringing back what is now, at least in our book, an official tradition: The 12 Days of Venture Capital.

Enjoy!

126K - $126k set a new All Time High for Bitcoin.

Bolstered by a positive crypto Trump administration, Bitcoin reached another all time high this past year, reaching just over $126k in October. While that uptick had marked a 33% gain for the year at the time, Bitcoin’s price has since plummeted as investors have grown weary of more speculative assets during this current market cycle

11 Major Company Tender Offers.

Databricks, OpenAI, Temporal, Rippling, Rokt, Anduril, Anthropic, Canva, Fireblocks, Revolut, and Stripe all hosted company sponsored liquidity events for their shareholders. Notably, most of these companies held these tenders to provide liquidity for long time shareholders. Offering liquidity to employees allows the company to make their people happy while maintaining the ability to go public on their on terms.

10 Figure AI Megadeals Became the Norm.

Anthropic, xAI and a small club of foundation model and infrastructure plays closed rounds at ten figure check sizes. One recent snapshot had a thirteen billion dollar round for Anthropic and around ten billion for xAI as part of a wave of AI megadeals that concentrated an outsized share of 2025 venture capital into a handful of names.

9 significant VC backed IPOs this year

The IPO window actually cracked open. Think Circle, CoreWeave, Chime, Figma, Klarna, Netskope, SailPoint, MNTN and a growing cast of billion dollar debutants. Collectively they helped drive a rebound in U S listings and delivered eye popping average returns for venture backed IPOs compared with more muted private equity floats.

8 Major IPO contenders for 2026.

Anduril, Canva, Kraken, Deel, Databricks, Stripe, Cerebras Systems, and FalconX all have either indicated or are poised to go public in 2026. We will be keeping a close eye on other solid companies that join the IPO pipeline as it continues to thaw

7 out of 10 global VC dollar investments going to North America

Northern America, led by the United States, now commands nearly seventy percent of all global venture investment in 2025, up from fifty seven percent in 2024 and forty eight percent in 2023. The rest of the world is increasingly playing the game on US terms.

6 out of 10 global VC dollars going to late stage

By Q3 about sixty percent of global venture funding was flowing into late stage rounds, with fifty eight point four billion dollars out of ninety seven billion going to growth and pre exit companies. That mix is great news if you are raising a continuation fund and tough love if you are seed in search of lead.

$500B for OpenAI

OpenAI became the first venture backed startup to be priced at a $500 dollar valuation, via a $6.6B dollar employee share sale led by SoftBank, Thrive and others. It is now the most valuable private company in the world.

4 straight quarters above $90B in total global VC funding

The funding winter is not exactly over, but the market is clearly off life support. Q3 marked the fourth consecutive quarter where global venture funding stayed above ninety billion dollars, even as deal counts fell and capital concentrated into fewer winners.

$3B+ in secondary volume traded

Secondary volume is on pace to surpass $3B this year per data from Caplight. Volume as of Q3 was $2.6B, surpassing the $1.7B volume during the same period last year.

2 Rate Cuts (and perhaps a third this week)

The Fed has continued to pursue expansionary measures through two additional rate cuts this year, with another 0.25% cut widely anticipated tomorrow. This should provide some cushion for the venture ecosystem as we look to next year.

1 new administration shaking up the economy

Since taking office in January, President Trump’s policies have had significant impacts on both the economy and VC ecosystem. While policies such as tariff pressure and increases to visa costs may be headwinds, the new tax bill and crypto friendly policies should be a boon.

Why this matters: Overall there are 3 main themes here:
1) AI Excitement: Money has been continuing to flow in at incredible rates, and investors are still betting heavy on the new tech. However….
2) AI Concern: During the back half of this year we have seen growing skepticism regarding if the valuations for some of these companies make sense, and if economic conditions are good enough to support continued positive conditions
3) Pre-IPO Liquidity: The continued increase of company sponsored tenders and the rise of the private secondary market offer increasingly viable liquidity solutions to employees that can’t wait for the IPO to cash in.

At ESO, we’re thankful for 2025 and excited to see how things play out in the new year. Happy Holidays!

November's Top Ten:

1. OpenAI and Amazon Web Services announced a thirty eight billion dollar multi year cloud agreement, one of the largest AI infrastructure commitments ever disclosed and a major escalation in the compute arms race.

2. Anthropic is forecasting seventy billion dollars in revenue and seventeen billion in operating cash flow by 2028 as enterprise adoption accelerates and AI native workflows become the norm.

3. Crusoe is reportedly nearing a one hundred twenty million dollar employee secondary at a thirteen billion dollar valuation, providing meaningful liquidity to early employees and highlighting continued investor demand for AI infrastructure builders.

4. SKIMS reached a valuation of five billion dollars as it raised new capital to expand its retail footprint and strengthen its position as one of the most valuable consumer brands in the United States.

5. Apptronik is reportedly in discussions to raise new funding at a five billion dollar valuation as investor enthusiasm for humanoid robotics and physical AI continues to intensify.

6. Blockchain.com is reportedly planning a public listing in 2026 as it restructures leadership and positions itself for renewed public market interest in crypto infrastructure.

7. Databricks is reportedly exploring a funding round that would value the company above one hundred thirty four billion dollars, driven by strong enterprise demand for unified data and AI tooling.

8. Tenstorrent is reportedly in talks to raise funding that would value the company around three billion dollars, reinforcing investor interest in alternative compute architectures as AI workloads multiply.

9. Veza is reportedly in discussions with potential buyers for a sale that could value the company at more than one billion dollars as identity and access governance become mission critical in the age of AI driven enterprise systems.

10. Kraken is reportedly raising capital from Citadel Securities at a valuation near twenty billion dollars, signaling renewed institutional conviction in crypto exchanges and digital asset infrastructure.

    Why It Matters:

    While AI and Crypto fundraising and exit prospects stayed high through November, cracks have definitely been starting to show up with the volatility of Bitcoin and stocks this past month due to investors starting to get a bit more weary on heavy risk on assets.

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