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- ESO's Monthly Start-up
The Haunting of Market Volatility
Sure, this would’ve made a great October headline — but the fear in the markets right now is real, and it’s not seasonal.
Late-stage IPO hopefuls are spooked, and it’s not because of a ghost sighting. Market volatility has returned with force, shaking confidence in what was supposed to be a smooth year for public listings. Instead of a wide-open IPO window, we’re now staring through fogged glass — and no one’s quite sure what’s on the other side.
🏃 Sprint and Stall
The year started with momentum. Companies like Klarna, Chime, and StubHub quietly filed to go public, signaling optimism. But April changed the game. Trump's surprise “Liberation Day” announcement — a sweeping move to apply tariffs on nearly all imports — jolted global markets. In just two days, $9 trillion in market cap for global equities vanished. Despite markets mostly recovering by month’s end, with major indexes like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and MSCI hovering within 1% of April’s opening levels, the underlying message was clear: uncertainty is back.
The ripple effect on the IPO pipeline was immediate. Klarna reportedly took its IPO off the table. StubHub and Chime are also pausing their IPO. And further down the funnel, we can expect fewer confidential filings until the macro picture stabilizes.
💡 Why This Still Matters
Not all companies are equally affected by choppy waters. In a previous newsletter, we said companies with strong fundamentals will perform well even if conditions aren’t perfect — and that’s playing out. ServiceTitan (TTAN), which IPO’ed in December, the price has increased 16.6% since its debut, a quiet but meaningful signal that quality still gets rewarded. Meanwhile, Figma has now confidentially filed for IPO this month, 16 months after calling off a $20B acquisition by Adobe due to regulatory pushback — another sign that resilient companies don’t wait for perfect timing; they create their own.
So while volatility may keep the IPO floodgates closed a little longer, the best companies won’t be trapped behind them. Markets may waver — but excellence still finds a way through.
Tips of the trade
A section where we provide helpful tips for anyone with stock options or shares at private companies.
Should You Take an NSO Extension?
If you’re leaving a startup and have stock options, you may be offered a “NSO extension.” But what exactly is it—and is it worth taking?
By default, Incentive Stock Options (ISOs) expire 90 days after your last day at the company. Some companies offer the chance to extend that window, but there’s a catch: they have to convert your ISOs into NSOs to do it.
That sounds like a fair trade—you get more time to make a big financial decision. But it’s not always in your best interest.
Here’s why:
ISOs offer favorable tax treatment (via AMT). But once your options become NSOs, any gain between the Fair Market Value (FMV) and your strike price is taxed as ordinary income at exercise. That can drastically increase your tax bill, especially if your company has gone up in value.
So should you accept the extension?
That depends on your situation:
Are you bullish on the company? You might want to exercise as ISOs before leaving.
Can you afford the cost + taxes right now? If not, an extension buys you breathing room—even if it costs you tax advantages.
Is the FMV already much higher than your strike? You might owe a lot no matter what.
The good news? You don’t have to decide blindly. Here’s a quick primer on NSO extensions, including the pros, cons, and when an extension actually makes sense.
And if you’re stuck between a rock and a tax bill, ESO Fund can help fund your option exercise, allowing you to hold your shares without risking your savings.
Funding your option exercise can be expensive and a require a large capital outlay. Feel free to reach out to us to discuss your options for partnering with ESO to exercise your options risk-free.
The ESO Fund does not provide legal, financial, or tax advice.
Public Multiples Check-in: "Yesterday's Price is not Today's Price"
Why this matters: We talked about public markets pretty thoroughly in the intro, so we won’t spend too much time on this section this month. Biggest things to look out for are if we start seeing larger cracks in consumer spending as tariffs take their toll, as well as unemployment rates and supply chain interruptions.
April's Top Ten:
1. Glean is reportedly in funding talks at a multi-billion-dollar valuation after crossing $100 million in ARR. The enterprise search startup is becoming essential for knowledge workers—and investors are eager to pile in.
2. Craft Ventures quietly laid off staff this month, tightening belts amid a shift in market conditions. It's a rare move for the high-profile fund, which has been on a deal spree for much of the past year.
3. New semiconductor tariffs are already shaking up VC funding, especially in AI and robotics. Founders report slower term sheets and delayed orders as the market adjusts to a fresh wave of import costs.
4. A16z is raising a $20 billion AI fund, part of a broader strategy to bundle GPU access with capital. It’s reportedly hoarding chips like gold bars—20,000+ GPUs and counting.
5. Several top AI suppliers are raising prices, citing tariff pressure on key imports. It’s a reminder that even cloud-scale ambitions depend on real-world supply chains—and those just got more expensive.
6. Figma has officially filed for IPO, a full-circle moment after regulators blocked its $20 billion sale to Adobe. The market will now decide what a modern design unicorn is worth in public hands.
7. OpenAI forecasts its revenue will top $125 billion by 2029, according to a pitch deck shared with investors. That would make it one of the largest software businesses in the world—though they still have a couple of years to make that happen.
8. Neuralink is raising $500 million at an estimated $8.5 billion valuation, as it moves toward broader human trials. Elon Musk’s brain interface company remains controversial, ambitious, and somehow still very real.
9. Discord CEO Jason Citron has stepped down, with the company announcing a leadership transition as it preps for life after gaming. Citron’s exit comes after more than a decade at the helm.
10. Scale AI is prepping a secondary share sale, which could value the company at more than $13 billion. It's the latest sign that liquidity is returning—even if IPOs remain elusive.
Why this matters: AI companies are still having no trouble raising, even as some people are flashing some warning bells. We will have to see how the tariff and larger economic situation evolves over the coming months, and if it has a trickle down effect to companies’ ability to raise
Startups that are hiring!
Open positions are per the company's website.
About ESO Fund
ESO Fund empowers startup employees to turn their stock options into reality. Since our inception in 2012, we've been dedicated to providing risk-free funding for the exercise of stock options, ensuring that individuals can seize the opportunities embedded in their equity.
Our mission is simple: to make equity compensation accessible and understandable. Through our innovative solutions, we've assisted countless individuals at 650+ companies in realizing the full value of their stock options, contributing to the success stories of numerous startup employees.
For more information on ESO Fund and how we can help fund your option exercise, please refer to our website at www.esofund.com!