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IPO Check-In
So far, 2025 has marked a clear reopening of the IPO window. Through October, the year is on pace to deliver the third-highest IPO count since 2000, trailing only the boom years of 2020 and 2021. A new administration, strong tailwinds in AI and crypto, and renewed confidence in public markets, helped by recent Fed rate cuts, are fueling optimism that this momentum could carry into 2026.
While market dynamics can shift quickly, the current backdrop suggests a constructive environment for IPO activity as we head into the new year.
Of the nearly 300 IPOs so far in 2025, we wanted to highlight the most relevant names from a venture capital perspective.
Inside the 2025 IPO Class
We’ve broken down the 2025 IPO class into clear buckets to make sense of the trends shaping this year’s market. Each company falls into one of three categories: Market Leaders (best-in-class businesses setting the pace), Momentum Plays (theme-driven growth stories in areas like AI and crypto), and the Comeback Cohort (former unicorns staging a return after the 2021 pullback).
Companies marked with an asterisk (*) are still under IPO lockup. All pricing data from Google Finance, reflecting today’s price relative to the first-day closing price.
Market Leaders
Figma* (down 61%), Coreweave (up 205%)
Looking ahead, the picture isn’t all rosy. There’s plenty of red across the board, but standout cases like Figma tell a more nuanced story. Figma priced at $33/sh and surged more than 250% on its first day, closing at $122/sh. Today, it’s still technically up 44% from its IPO price, though Google’s data (based on first-day close) shows it as down. Regardless, since August 1, the stock has fallen 61%.
The bigger takeaway? We haven’t seen a true wave of top-tier IPOs yet. Figma qualifies, and Reddit’s fall 2024 debut deserves mention. CoreWeave could be slotted as an AI momentum play, but it sits in a different class than the others.
Until the marquee names start going public consistently, the IPO window isn’t fully open. Why? Because these companies can IPO on their own terms. They boast scale, strong topline growth, and profitability. With healthy cash flows and the ability to raise additional venture capital at will, they can wait for perfect timing. These best-in-class players are the ultimate barometer of IPO market health, because they move when they choose, not when conditions force their hand.
Momentum Plays
Figure* (up 21%), Circle (up 7%), eToro (down 44%), Gemini (down 46%)
This isn’t a knock on companies like Circle or eToro, but their IPO timing clearly benefited from strong thematic tailwinds, particularly the resurgence in crypto. These firms capitalized on positive catalysts that made going public in 2025 a strategic move. For a deeper dive into the state of crypto and AI, check out our last two newsletters.
Comeback Cohort
Navan* (down 15%), Chime* (down 49%), Via* (up 5%), Klarna* (down 15%), Netskope* (down 5%), Heartflow* (up 17%), Hinge Health* (up 25%), MNTN* (down 44%), Omada Health (up 9%)
The Comeback Cohort consists of companies that, like momentum-driven peers, are leveraging renewed market optimism to fuel their public debuts. These firms achieved unicorn status during the 2021 bull run and have spent the intervening years working to validate those lofty valuations. Today, only Omada Health, Via, and Netskope are trading above their previous highs.
Looking Ahead: The 2026 IPO Watchlist
Market Leaders
Databricks, Stripe, Canva, Anduril, OpenAI, Rippling, Deel
These are the companies that could truly swing the IPO window wide open if they choose to go public. Databricks and Stripe have been IPO-ready for years, but their strong cash positions mean there’s no urgency to exit.
Anduril, Canva, Deel, Rippling, and Databricks all raised fresh capital this year and offered employee liquidity through tender offers. These moves can be interpreted in two ways:
Signal of strength: Tender offers are typically associated with mature, IPO-ready companies, which suggests these firms are in a strong position for a public debut.
Extended runway: By raising funds and cashing out some employees, they’ve reduced pressure to IPO anytime soon. They can continue operating privately, raising capital and managing liquidity as needed.
OpenAI sits in a category of its own. While technically a momentum play, it is the momentum. After raising significant funding this year, OpenAI has floated plans for an IPO at a valuation of up to $1 trillion. If the companies above have the power to open the IPO gates, OpenAI could be the catalyst that finally pushes giants like Stripe and Databricks to make their public debuts.
Momentum Plays
Cerebras Systems, Kraken, Chainalysis, Ripple, FalconX
This bucket remains dominated by AI and crypto. As long as AI continues its rapid ascent and crypto adoption moves further into the mainstream, these companies will stay near the top of the list for potential IPO candidates.
Comeback Cohort
Grafana Labs, ClickUp, Revolut, SeatGeek, Motive, 1Password, Gusto, Wealthfront, Rokt, Armis, Tanium, Brex
This list could easily be much longer. Between 2020 and 2022, the unicorn boom created hundreds of private companies: 176 in 2020, 620 in 2021, and 324 in 2022. According to Crunchbase, as of June 2025, 982 of those unicorns remain private: a situation they refer to as the “unicorn backlog.”
This dynamic defines today’s market:
The new high-flyers: A fresh wave of AI-driven companies, some destined to fail, others poised to become the next Googles, Microsofts, or Apples.
The old guard: Unicorns from the 2021–2022 era, still sitting on those valuations, reluctant to raise at lower prices, yet unable to exit under current conditions.
Emerging Contenders
Oura, Vast Data, Cato Networks, Abnormal Security, Cribl, Glean
We’ve added this category to spotlight companies that hit their stride after the 2021 bull market cooled. These players represent the next wave of IPO hopefuls, fast-growing businesses with clean funding histories and strong fundamentals. They’re competing with the Comeback Cohort for attention, but their trajectory suggests they’re more likely to debut in 2027 or 2028. Still, if certain dominos fall, some could accelerate their timelines.
Why this matters: Things are trending upward right now, but markets can turn quickly. Rising valuations mean your potential tax bill could increase when you exercise options. It’s worth considering an exercise while your tax hit remains relatively low (more on this in Tips of the Trade below).
Another key point: going public doesn’t guarantee smooth sailing. After an IPO, shares can move sharply in either direction: sometimes up, sometimes down. And remember, most IPOs come with a lockup period (typically 90–180 days) during which you can’t sell your shares.
Finally, just like in the public markets with Nvidia or Apple, the decisions of major players (Stripe, Databricks, Anduril, OpenAI) can influence the entire market. Their timing and performance often set the tone for valuations and liquidity across the private ecosystem
Tips of the trade
A section where we provide helpful tips for anyone with stock options or shares at private companies.
Keeping Your Exercise Taxes Low
Valuations are climbing, and that’s great for your equity, but it also means a bigger tax bill when it comes time to exercise.
One way to stay ahead? Exercise before the next raise in valuation. Locking in a lower tax hit now can save you thousands later.
But how much should you exercise? The real rule of thumb: only exercise what you can afford to risk. Typically, it makes sense to wait until you leave the company, but if you can afford to exercise a portion of your shares ahead of a fundraise, it can make a real difference. Problem is, if the company fails, you could lose that money.
A helpful measuring stick is to look at how many ISOs you can exercise without triggering AMT. The Alternative Minimum Tax kicks in when the “spread” between your strike price and the current fair market value gets too large. Exercising up to that threshold lets you pay only the strike price, no extra tax, making it the most cost-effective way to start building ownership. It’s not about exercising everything; it’s about taking a risk-adjusted approach that hedges against future valuation increases without overextending.
In a hot market, timing matters. A little planning now can keep your taxes low, give you flexibility when liquidity events arrive, and take some of the financial burden off when you eventually leave the company.
Funding your option exercise can be expensive and a require a large capital outlay. Feel free to reach out to us to discuss your options for partnering with ESO Fund to exercise your options risk-free.
ESO Fund does not provide legal, financial, or tax advice.
October's Top Ten:
The Fed cut 25 bps in October again, lowering it benchmark overnight borrowing rate to a range of 3.75%-4%. In addition, the Fed announced that they would be ending the reduction of its asset purchases (quantitative tightening) on Dec. 1.
Navan completed its IPO this past month, debuting on the Nasdaq under the ticker “NAVN”. The company raised $923 million and the IPO valued it at roughly $6.2 billion. As of today, Navan is trading at roughly a $4.2 billion market cap.
OpenAI is reportedly laying the groundwork to file for an IPO as early as the second half of 2026 with a target valuation near $1 trillion, making it a potential landmark public listing.
Anthropic reported an annualized revenue run rate approaching $7 billion as of mid-October, positioning it for strong growth ahead of ambitious targets for 2026.
After turning down a $3 billion acquisition offer from Adobe, London‑based startup Synthesia is preparing to announce a new funding round that values the company at roughly the same figure. According to industry reports, the round is expected to include fresh backing from NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang.
SambaNova, once valued at ~$5 billion, is reportedly exploring an outright sale after its latest fundraising efforts stalled and investor appetite for large-scale AI hardware firms softened.
There doesn’t look to be anything stopping Anduril right now, as the CEO says the company plans to double ARR this year as it ramps hardware production and scales autonomous systems.
Anysphere, creator of the Cursor AI platform, is exploring fresh capital-infusion offers that would value the company at approximately $30 billion amid rapid ARR growth.
OpenAI completed a secondary share sale enabling current and former employees to cash out $6.6 billion at a $500 billion valuation, cementing its status as the most valuable private company globally as it surpasses SpaceX.
Snyk’s revenue growth decelerated to just 12% in Q2, down from ~26 % in 2024, prompting interest from private-equity buyers and internal consideration of a buy-out rather than a full public listing.
Why It Matters:
Cheaper money via Fed rate cuts is sustaining the speculative AI and crypto bull market and keeping the IPO window open. While high valuations are fueled by hype and future potential, there is significant intrinsic value emerging through widespread enterprise adoption of both technologies.
Startups that are hiring!
Open positions are per the company's website.
About ESO Fund
ESO Fund empowers startup employees to turn their stock options into reality. Since our inception in 2012, we've been dedicated to providing risk-free funding for the exercise of stock options, ensuring that individuals can seize the opportunities embedded in their equity.
Our mission is simple: to make equity compensation accessible and understandable. Through our innovative solutions, we've assisted countless individuals at 650+ companies in realizing the full value of their stock options, contributing to the success stories of numerous startup employees.
For more information on ESO Fund and how we can help fund your option exercise, please refer to our website at www.esofund.com!